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历史上旱灾对粮食价格的影响


气候异常永远是悬在农产品头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”,干旱造成的粮食减产则位于各类自然灾害之首。严重的干旱不仅直接影响粮食产量,导致粮价上涨,而且会阻碍粮食贸易,引发严重的粮食安全问题。相较而言,因实行粮食储备制度,我国粮食价格因旱灾上涨幅度远小于国际市场。

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  2006NIAN,YOUYUAODALIYA、MEIGUODENGDUODIGAOWENGANZAOHUOGANHAN,XIAOMAIJIANCHANYANZHONG,GUOJIGUWULISHIHUICHENG,JIEZHI2007NIAN6YUEDESHICHANGNIANDULI,QUANQIUXIAOMAICHANLIANGYUJIWEI5.93YIDUN,JIAOSHANGNIANJIANSHAO4%。YOUYUGONGYINGLINGRENDANYOU,GUOJIXIAOMAIJIAGECONG348.9MEIFEN/PUSHIERBIAOSHENGZHI502.4MEIFEN/PUSHIER,CHUANGXIA10NIANLAIDEXINGAO。

  2007NIANTIANGONGZAICIBUZUOMEI,BULITIANQIDAOZHIZHUYAOCHUKOUGUOXIAOMAICHANLIANGJIXUSHOUCUO,ERGUOJISHICHANGXUQIUYIJIUQIANGJING,GUOJISHICHANGXIAOMAIJIAGELIANXUDUOCISHUAXINLISHIJILU。CBOTXIAOMAICONG4YUECHUDE444.9MEIFEN/PUSHIER,LIANZHANG6GEYUE,ZHI9YUEDIPANSHENGZHI892.4MEIFEN/PUSHIER,BINGYU10YUE1RIZAIDUCHUANGXIALELISHIZUIGAOSHUIPING,QIZHONG12YUEHEYUEZECHUANGXIALE958.5MEIFEN/PUSHIERDELISHIZUIGAOJILU。

  2012NIANXIAJI,MEIGUOZAOYU56NIANLAIZUIYANZHONGDEGAOWENGANHAN,ZHONGZHISHOUDAOZHONGCHUANG,ERELUOSI、WUKELANDENGZHUYAOXIAOMAICHANQUYESHOUDAOGANHANQIHOUYINGXIANGERJIANCHAN,DAOZHIZHIJIAGEQIHUOJIAOYISUODADOUHEYUMIJIAGEDIECHUANGJILUXINGAO,XIAOMAIJIAGEYESHANGZHANGLE40%。SHOUCITUIDONG,QUANQIULIANGSHIJIAGEZAI2012NIAN7YUEMENGZHANG10%,YUMIHEXIAOMAIJIAGEJUNSHANGZHANG25%,HUANGDOUJIAGEYESHANGZHANGLE17%。

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  ZAI1999NIANDONGHANJICHUSHANG,2000NIANCHUNJIHEXIAJIHUANGHUAI、JIANGHUAICHIXUSHAOYU,DAOZHIDONGXIAOMAIZHUCHANQUYANZHONGGANHAN,JIXIALIANGSHENGCHANZAOCHENGYANZHONGSUNSHI。QUANGUOSHOUHANMIANJI60811WANMU,CHENGZAI40175WANMU,YINHANZAIJIANCHANLIANGSHI1199.2YIJIN。SHOUYANZHONGHANZAIYINGXIANG,YUMIDANCHANBISHANGNIANDAFUDUXIAJIANG,ZONGCHANLIANGYUE10500WANDUN,BISHANGNIANJIANCHAN2300WANDUN,JIANSHAOJIN18%;YIERDENGYUMIWEILI,12YUEFENQISHIJISHOUGOUJIAGEWEI42.45YUAN/50GONGJIN,BI6YUEFENHUISHENG4.1%。

  2007NIAN,WOGUOYOU22GESHENGFENFASHENGBUTONGCHENGDUDEHANQING,QUANGUOYOU5.99YIMUNONGZUOWUSHOUHAN,QIZHONGJUESHOU5239WANMU,YINHANZAOCHENGLIANGSHISUNSHI373.6YIGONGJIN。JUGUOJIALIANGSHIJUTONGJI,2007NIANMO,ZHONGGUOXIAOMAIJIAGETONGBIZENGZHANG1.3%,ZAOXIANDAOJIAGETONGBIZENGZHANG7.6%,ZHONGXIANDAOTONGBIZENGZHANG7.8%,WANXIANDAOTONGBIZENGZHANG9.2%,YUMIJIAGETONGBIZENGZHANG12.7%,JIEYUANDIYUGUOJISHICHANGJIAGEZENGFU。

  2008NIANRUDONGYILAI,WOGUO15SHENGSHICHUXIANHANQING,BASHENGDONGMAIQUSHOUHANMIANJIJIZHONG。JIEZHI2009NIAN2YUE7RI,QUANGUONONGZUOWUSHOUHANMIANJI1.63YIMU,BICHANGNIANTONGQIDUO1.1YIMU。SHOUDAHANYINGXIANG,2009NIANCHUNJIEGUOHOU,GUONEINONGCHANPINSHICHANGZOUSHIMINGXIANQIANGYUGUOJISHICHANG,YOUQISHIQIANGJINXIAOMAIBIAOXIANGENGWEIQIANGYAN,ZAIDUANDUANDE3GEJIAOYIRINEIKUAISULASHENG100YUDIAN,0905HEYUESANTIANNEILEIJISHANGZHANG107YUAN/DUN,ZHANGFUGAODA5.45%。

  2009NIANHE2010NIANCHUNJI,ZHONGGUOBEIFANGDONGMAIQUHEXINANDIQUFENBIEFASHENGLISHIHANJIANDEDAHAN。JUGUOJIAFANGZONGBANGONGSHITONGJI,JIEZHI2010NIAN3YUE23RI,QUANGUOGENGDISHOUHANMIANJI1.14YIMU,QIZHONGXINANDIQU9654WANMU,QISHIZAOXIANMI、WANXIANMI、JINGMILINGSHOUJIAGEBI2008NIANCHUFENBIESHANGZHANG13%、11%、20%。

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